China’s PHEV advantage in Europe is about to get much harder to defend
Chinese brands already account for 28% of Europe’s PHEV registrations. An ICCT study shows why the emissions advantage behind that growth is about to shrink.
Chinese automakers have found an almost perfect weapon for their push into Europe: plug-in hybrids. But from 2027, the rules of the game could change sharply. According to a new ICCT study, Chinese brands accounted for 28% of all European PHEV registrations from January through July 2026, while the number of registered vehicles rose by roughly 60% compared with the same period a year earlier.
And this is where things get uncomfortable. The problem lies in the way official emissions are calculated. ICCT analyzed data from around 920,000 plug-in hybrids and found a striking gap: for 2023 vehicles, real-world CO₂ emissions were on average 4.6 times higher than certified values. Worse still, actual emissions increased from 130 to 134 g/km between 2021 and 2023, while official figures fell from 37 to 29 g/km.
The European Union has already moved to address the mismatch. Regulators have scheduled changes to the so-called Utility Factor, the coefficient used to estimate how much of a PHEV’s driving is done on electric power when official emissions are calculated. The second stage of the changes starts affecting certification in 2027. In practice, certified CO₂ figures should move closer to real-world use, reducing the advantage plug-in hybrids provide when manufacturers calculate fleet-average emissions.
ICCT believes Chinese brands could feel the shift more than most. The reason is simple: PHEVs are becoming an increasingly important part of their rapid European expansion. Still, it is far too early to declare the plug-in hybrid dead. The European Union is not banning PHEVs — it is changing the way their emissions are counted, and the new math may be much less favorable.