One question — and Germany's auto industry is on edge again. Volkswagen's future is under discussion, and the discussion is blunt. Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, was asked in an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung whether the group could go bankrupt. His answer was direct: “VW will probably be bought by a Chinese carmaker. BYD, for example.”
There are no talks between BYD and Volkswagen. This is an economist’s forecast, not a leak from the boardroom. But it didn’t come out of nowhere — it landed amid a massive restructuring at Volkswagen, falling sales in China, fierce competition from local brands, and rising costs for EVs and software.
Volkswagen is already carrying out one of the biggest overhauls in its history. Job cuts, reduced production capacity, plant closures, and the sale of non-core assets are all on the table. At the same time, the group is leaning harder on partnerships: it has invested in cooperation with Rivian and Xpeng to speed up development of new electric architectures and software.
Now for the reality check. A Chinese takeover of Volkswagen is nearly impossible. Less than 10% of the group’s shares are in free float; the rest is controlled by Porsche SE, which is run by the founding family. On top of that, the state of Lower Saxony holds a blocking minority — under the Volkswagen law, any sale requires more than 80% approval. Such a deal would almost certainly face tough scrutiny from European regulators and politicians, and in the US it would likely run into restrictions on Chinese connected-car technology. BYD is already seen as a serious player in Europe — but a Volkswagen takeover remains, for now, just a talking point.
