General Motors is on track to close 2025 with a larger slice of the U.S. new-vehicle market. According to Cox Automotive, the company is set to remain the nation’s biggest automaker for a fourth straight year. GM’s share is expected to rise to 17.3% from 16.8% a year earlier, with total sales surpassing 2.8 million vehicles—more than a 5% year-over-year gain.

Across the U.S. market, analysts estimate full-year 2025 volume will reach 16.3 million vehicles. That would be 1.8% above 2024 and the strongest result since 2019. December is projected to come in below last year’s level, and the overall pace looks set to cool as the industry heads into 2026.

Cox Automotive highlights heightened volatility tied to economic conditions and shifts in trade policy. Demand picked up in the spring amid expectations of price increases following tariff measures, while the summer brought a flurry of EV purchases ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit. In the fourth quarter, interest in electric models weakened noticeably. The pattern underlines how sentiment and policy timing can swing demand in short order.

Toyota is projected to finish 2025 in second place with a 15.5% share and an 8.4% increase in sales. Collectively, GM, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai added 2.6 percentage points of market share, while most other manufacturers lost ground. As the market slows, the biggest players are setting the tone, effectively forming the backbone of supply.